Horse Racing: Handicapping, Profitcapping And Old Things Seen In New Ways

Handicapping, profitcapping and old things seen in new ways is the only thing new in racing. You’re looking for the answers that solves all of it or solves everything in handicapping? Are you able to recognize it when you see it? Do you really want to make money in racing or do you wish to just talk it or dream about it? There’s nothing silly about this. In racing there’s nothing new except: only old things seen in new ways. One of the main matters in racing is: how accurate can all the facets, elements and factors in be measured.

Without accuracy and precision predicting the order of finish of races becomes more difficult and the player is ever more unskilled to make money. Almost every book and website on racing states:

(1) that we’ve found the ultimate system and all you have to do is buy it, use it and make a million dollars.

(2) our system has won several hundred or several thousands of dollars over the weekend so it’s the best.

(3) our system caught two long-shots and made a few extra dollars and it’ll make money for you forever.

(4) our system catches the win position horse 95% of the time compared to the tote board that catches the win position horse 33% of the time.

Also: (5) we’ve found the one angle that does it all. These and other false statements are promoted and given to the gullible public who buys these fallacies. None of this is real because there are no such things. Almost every system sold tries to make the player believe that it’s all about handicapping. Is handicapping all there is to racing? No. Getting the horse you’ve betted on is important but what’s more important is the odds on the horse(s) that tells what the horse(s) will pay.

Handicapping tells you how well you can predict a race’s outcome. But it doesn’t tell you how much money can be made long-term. Do you know what it takes to make money in racing? Let me tell you:

(a) first it takes knowing that racing’s made of two main parts: profitcapping and handicapping.

(b) the highest form of handicapping is: advanced statistical handicapping. Why? Because racing’s a statistical game.

(c) the highest form of the money side of the game is: advanced profitcapping which is statistically oriented also.

(d) it takes learning both very well.

Also: (e) it takes testing everything in order to see how money is made and then to in fact make money. Do you want to be given a magic method that’s 100% certain to make you a millionaire and without you having to do anything? It doesn’t exist. There’s no easy money in racing. This is partially about handicapping, profitcapping and old things seen in new ways.

The 3 Biggest Obstacles To Good Decision-Making

Good decision-making is at the heart of every successful organisation. So, for leaders, it’s useful to understand a little more about how decision-making works – and what are some of the main obstacles to it.

Thankfully, advances in neuroscience in recent years have helped shed light on how people arrive at decisions; below we look at three of the main impediments to coherent decision-making, as uncovered by neuroscience.

1. Perceived threat

When we perceive threat, the more ‘primitive’ parts of our brain tend to take over as we go into a stress-response mode. This is the ‘fight or flight’ mentality. We still make a decision, and it can even be the right one in the circumstances: to run away from a loud bang, for instance.

However, in the workplace, physical threats (which our primitive brains are generally well-attuned to responding to) are few and far between. The threats we perceive are more likely to be to our reputation, our job security, or other such factors.

The response in the brain, though, is the same: cortisol is released, which speeds up the heart rate, and the more executive-thinking parts of our brain (which we often need to engage in workplace decisions) are essentially hijacked by the threat response. Where there is perceived threat, therefore, good decision-making is unlikely.

2. Unreliable memory

Human memory is very different to computer memory. Data is not just entered, stored, and retrievable in the same format, as needed. The data in our memories changes over time!

That’s because human memory is subject to influences and biases, and is far more complex. You will have experienced what can happen to memory when asking someone to recount the same event at different times. The two accounts are not usually identical.

Memory is heavily influenced by our ego; most people will naturally adjust memories in order to protect their sense of self- value, rather than have 100 percent truthful recollections. This is sometimes called the ‘self-serving bias’, and is just one of the many biases that can affect our decision-making.

3. Cognitive biases

Rational judgment and decision-making becomes even more difficult when we are subject to any of the many cognitive biases just mentioned. These can be powerful influences, leading us to make poor decisions – even when we know that we are being irrational.

Some common biases that affect people are:

  • Selectively searching for, or interpreting, information in a way that confirms their own preconceptions (‘Confirmation bias’ )
  • The tendency to think that future probabilities are changed by past events, when in reality they are unchanged (‘Gambler’s fallacy’)
  • Giving preferential treatment to those who are perceived as part of the ‘group’ (In-group favouritism)
  • Developing a preference for things merely because they are familiar with them (‘Mere exposure effect’ )
  • The tendency to ‘go with the flow’ (The ‘Bandwagon’ effect)
  • Relying too heavily on the first piece of information received (Anchoring bias)

You can probably recognise some of the above biases in others – how about in yourself?

Being aware of the three factors above is the first step to making better decisions. If we understand the potential threats to clear thought during the decision-making process, we can recognise when they are hijacking our brains!

How To Spot A Horse Racing Tipster Scam

I received an email recently from a new member to my betting advice service. She told me how she had fallen prey to one of the longest-running tipster scams around. Unfortunately this type of con is all too commonplace, and in this case made a victim of a lady with little experience of betting. What is concerning, is that for the scammers to continue using these methods means there must be a never-ending supply of unwary people forming a queue to be exploited.

I write this piece in the hope I can make at least a few more people aware of what to look out for.

The story starts with the typical piece of junk mail which regularly falls on our door mats. It contains amazing promises of big incomes to be had from following this guy’s betting advice. As ‘proof’ of this guy’s talents there is a page of outstanding results, of numerous horses winning at big prices.

Now granted, I myself guarantee a significant income to people joining my betting service. However, what I do offer any prospective member is the chance to try my service first hand, with a free trial. This tipster was looking for the first month’s membership fee up front, sent to an anonymous PO Box.

So, my first piece of advice would be “never send a tipster any money, unless you are satisfied of his credentials.” Ask for a trial of his service before you agree to part with any money. If he says ‘no’ then you have lost nothing.

More often than not, you will find no way of contacting the tipster to ask him this question — no telephone number, no email address, only the anonymous PO Box address. This desire to remain incommunicado should also speak volumes to you!

Going back to the story of our friend the tipster and his glossy piece of advertising copy — after sending off a sizeable cheque, the lady in question received a ‘hotline’ telephone number which she was advised to call every day for the tips. I know what you may be thinking, but in this case it wasn’t a premium rate number that costs £5 each day to call. This is a trick often used, and everyone should be very wary of telephone numbers pre-fixed ‘090’ especially if they have already paid a membership fee.

After following the tips for a number of days, the results were mediocre to say the least, and certainly nowhere near the high standard illustrated by the glossy marketing literature.

The next piece of advice is cliched, but remains true — “if it seems too good to be true, then it probably is!”

After about a week, this lady received a further letter, telling her that if she wanted to hear about a ‘sure-fire winner’ in the Melbourne Cup in Australia, then she should call another number. When she called she spoke to a gentleman who explained that in order to get details of the horse, she must agree to place some money on it, on behalf of the tipster. His excuse was that because he has been so successful, he has been banned from all the bookmakers, and finds it impossible to place bets personally.

The lady was asked to place £100 for this tipster, and whatever she could afford herself. The horse in question, if we were to believe the hype from this tipster, “absolutely couldn’t lose”.

She placed her money with her local bookmaker, and you’ve already guessed what happened. In fact, she lost £250 in total.

Two things to point out here — first of all, the tipster shoulders absolutely no risk in this transaction. If the horse loses, then it is only you that loses money. If it wins, then you are pressurized into sending the scammer his slice of the winnings. Secondly, let me assure you, there is no such thing as a ‘sure thing’ in any race. Even more so in a big ‘feature’ race such as the Melbourne Cup — its the biggest race in the Australian horse racing calendar, and each and every one of the runners will have been put into the race with a chance of winning.

This type of scam has even less credibility nowadays. With the advent of the betting exchanges, the disadvantage of having your accounts closed by various bookmakers is now totally irrelevant. Firms such as Betfair have no axe to grind if you are a winning punter, and they will never close your account.

Whenever you receive a set of ‘incredible’ results from a tipster, first ask if these results include ALL the selections given. In other words, is the tipster trying to hide any losers which would detract from his results? The lesson above also applies here: how easy is the tipster to contact, and how quickly and positively does he reply?

If the results are supposed to be complete, then we can analyse them a little further: make a note of the total number of bets. This is the total invested. Let’s say by way of an example that there are 50 bets — you would have invested 50 points.

Let’s say that when you add up all the claimed winners, the returns amount to 103 points. So, you would have invested 50 points in 50 bets, which returned 103 points for a profit of 53 points. Very impressive.

But now let’s get real! 53 points profit on an investment of 50 points equates to a return on investment of 206% This is calculated by dividing the 103 points returned, by the original 50 points invested.

Ask any professional punter, and they will tell you that a good return is 120% — very good is 130% — and anything over 140% is either unsustainable, or an outright fabrication. Personally, I am extremely happy when I achieve over 130% ROI for any given month, and more often than not I will only achieve around 120% – 125%

To summarize,

1. Don’t send a tipster any money until he has proved himself to you over a period of time, or he has been personally recommended by someone you trust.

2. Be wary of any tipster who hides behind an anonymous PO Box number, and is very difficult to contact. Does he answer your questions quickly and directly.

3. Be cautious of any service that involves calling a premium rate number for your information. You should be aware that you are likely to spend over £100 each month on telephone calls BEFORE you have even started to make any profit.

4. Never be fooled by anyone who claims they have a ‘sure-fire’ winner that cannot lose. Every horse, in every race has a chance of winning, and so no horse is ever 100% certain to win.

5. Never allow yourself to be seduced into placing on behalf of a tipster. His excuse that he cannot place bets personally is a total fallacy with the advent of betting exchanges, and only means he is hoping you will take all the risk in placing his bets.

6. Don’t be afraid to question a tipsters results — never take them at face value.

7. Is the tipsters claimed Return On Investment realistic — anything over 150% should be treated with suspicion, and is most likely to be an exaggeration.

8. If it seems too good to be true, then it probably is.

6 Things a Resume Will Not Do For You

The fact that every job seeker should have a professional and incisive resume is worthy emphasizing. Whether you are at the beginning of your job search or you have garnered years of experience in your career, it is inexcusable not to have a written summary of your academic attainments, skills and competences. Despite this, it is a fallacy to assume that well-crafted curriculum vitae can solve all the employment-related problems of candidates.

The following are some things that a resume will not do for you:

1. Cover up for your academic inadequacies

In this internet era, it is possible to access and download a presentable format of a resume, but this will not compensate for lack of requisite academic qualifications. Organizations look for candidates who fit specific training requirements. Not even the best formatted document will make the person inviting candidates for interviews to forget to ascertain that you fit the bill. It is imperative for students at different levels of education to spend time responsibly so as not to land in the job market with less-than-desirable grades.

2. Replace skills and competences that you lack

Some candidates, on realizing that they have simple resumes that are shallow on the required competences, attempt to spice these documents with unnecessary details to conceal inadequacies. It is important that you apply for a vacancy that you can fill immediately. Unless otherwise stated, most employers are not interested in candidates who require further training before performing their duties effectively. You only get experience through working, even if you have to volunteers to acquire the requisite skills.

3. Compensate for flawed character

Prospective employers are not only interested in academic papers, competence and skills but also in character, and not even the most detailed and rich resume will fill this gap. What is the importance of a genius worker who cannot cooperate with others? Should competence be accentuated above conduct when the right candidate has a history of violence or fraud? Would the organization rather have a lazy but skilled worker instead of a diligent one with low skill levels, but who is willing to learn? Live today knowing your character will forever accompany you to job interviews and workplaces.

4. Tell the entire story of your life

While curriculum vitae bear your personal information, you should not take advantage of these documents to create a miniature autobiography. This text cannot help you to narrate the whole story of your academic and social exploits to a prospective employer. The latter is interested in how you fit the profile of the vacancy. Select the aspects that are most important to the prospective employer and leave the details for the interview.

5. Make you pass an interview

A resume is a crucial tool in your quest for a job interview, but make no mistake, this document is not a guarantee that you are going to impress a panel soon. It is one thing to have good credentials; it is another matter altogether to execute your interview skills and win over the panelists. In most cases, you will be one of the many candidates who will present exceptional curriculum vitae, and your performance during the interview will determine whether you will get the job. Have the best resume but prepare adequately for the interview in other aspects.

6. Get you a job

When the panel finally makes the crucial decision on who to employ from a list of interviewed candidates, the format of a resume and its content will only be one of the many determining factors. Your competence, experiences, communication skills, decision-making abilities and attitude will be used to gauge whether there is a relationship between the person whose name headlines the resume and you. In essence, this document alone, however exquisite, will not guarantee you a job.