Welcome to Casino Blackjack!

Welcome to Casino Blackjack! Blackjack is now the most popular casino game. Blackjack is also the most profitable game- for the casino! How is this possible? How can a game which has rules that seem so advantageous to the player, be so profitable for the casino?

The dealer is limited to strict rules. The dealer must stand on a card total of 17. The player can draw as many cards as he or she wants. The dealer must hit a card total of 16. The player may stand on a 16.

Also, the player has so many other options to take advantage of. The player can Double Down, Split Pairs, Take Insurance, and even Surrender a bad hand in some casinos.

In most casinos, the player can usually increase the amount bet on each hand by a factor of one hundred! You can bet five dollars on one hand, and then bet five hundred dollars on the next hand! If you are dealt a Blackjack, you win one and one half times your bet.

Someone who is new to the game would say this seems to be “get-rich-quick” scheme. Actually it is a “get- rich-quick” scheme. With most unskilled Blackjack players, -the casino gets rich quick!

Why is it that a game that seems so easy to beat is so rarely beaten? Why do so few players win at this game?

First of all, the game of Blackjack is not what it appears to be! If you play Blackjack using what seems to be “common sense” (in other words-without a playing method or computer tested rules), you can expect an approximate 5 to 6% disadvantage! By the time you finish this course, you will understand how the casino gains this advantage. You will also learn a method of playing that will reduce the casino advantage, and increase your chance of winning at this game.

Of all the games in the casino, Blackjack offers you the best chance of winning. Blackjack offers you the most control over the game. Most casino games do not allow the players to use their skill or exercise control over the outcome of the game. Very few players understand the importance of this fact.

As the cards are dealt out during Blackjack play, the odds swing back and forth during the game, favoring either the player or the casino. The skilled player who can determine when these odds are favorable, can cut the casino advantage to near zero! By using proper playing decisions and increasing bet size at these favorable times, you can play with a positive advantage.

IS BLACKJACK A GAME OF SKILL, OR A GAME OF CHANCE?

Is Blackjack a game of skill, or is it a game of chance, just like any of the other games in the casino? The answer is yes to both questions! Blackjack is a game of skill and a game of chance. Remember, Blackjack is a casino game in which chance is not the only factor that determines the outcome of the game.

Most games in the casino are subject to the Law of Independent Trials. This is a statistical term. The Law of Independent Trials states that any event is just as likely to occur in a game of chance every time the game is played. Every time the dice are thrown, every time the roulette wheel is spun, every time the slot machine handle is pulled, -the odds in effect for that particular game do not change! It might seem hard to believe, -but it is true!

It might be easier to understand if you imagine that you’ve just pulled a slot machine handle 500 times without hitting the big jackpot. You leave the machine to get some lunch. A woman comes along, drops a quarter into the slot, and pulls the handle. -Is she more likely to hit the big jackpot? Is this slot machine more likely to pay off after 501 pulls of the handle than it was after your 500th pull of the handle?

The answer is that she has exactly the same odds of hitting the big jackpot on her pull as you had on any of your 500 pulls! The odds in effect for that particular game do not change!

This phenomenon does not occur in the game of Blackjack. Blackjack is not subject to the Law of Independent Trials! As the cards are dealt from the shoe, the odds of the game fluctuate back and forth. You will learn a card tracking method that will alert you as to when these odds favor the player. This method becomes more and more accurate as the dealer gets closer to the shuffle point. You will also learn how to enter and exit the game at certain times to take full advantage of this fact!

You must use your skill to gain this information. You will also be using your skill to make playing and wagering decisions. Your wagering decisions will be based on this card tracking information. Blackjack is one casino game in which your skill can greatly affect your chance of winning!

THREE KINDS OF BLACKJACK PLAYERS?

There are many different kinds of Blackjack players. I used to think that they fell into three neat categories. In the first group are the people who can walk into any casino, sit down at a Blackjack table and win money on a regular basis. These people make their living playing Blackjack.

In the second group are people who play Blackjack for some extra money. These people supplement their regular income by winning this extra money playing Blackjack. These two groups probably account for less than 2 percent of all Blackjack players!

The third group of people make up the other ninety-eight percent of all Blackjack players. Some of them play often. Others play once a year. They all have one thing in common. They can usually be counted on to make a nice donation of money to the casino when they play. No matter where, or how they play Blackjack, they usually lose money!

JUST TWO KINDS OF BLACKJACK PLAYERS IN THE WORLD!

Some of you might remember the old song ‒Just Two Kinds People in The World by Little Anthony and The Imperials. If you think about it, you will realize that there are just two kinds of Blackjack players in the world, -the winners and the losers! I don’t care if you play Blackjack once a year, or once a week. I don’t care if you’re an expert or a beginner. I don’t care if you play with five dollar chips or hundred dollar chips!

On New Year’s Eve, I have only one question for you: “After playing Blackjack all year, did you win money or lose money?” How often do you hear people boast about how well they play? Others will boast that they play at the twenty-five dollar tables with the real pros. Are you impressed?

Don’t be impressed by boasting Blackjack players until you ask them my New Year’s Eve question. If they finished the year with a positive cash flow from Blackjack, you can be impressed. If they made a financial donation to their favorite casino, don’t scold or be critical. Just let them see your copy of this course and suggest that they read it from beginning to end!

Again, we must ask the sixty-four million dollar question. Why do so few people win at Blackjack? The answer seems obvious, but is really quite complicated.

FIVE BLACKJACK COMMENTS

I must tell you about some of my friends who live near Asbury Park, New Jersey. Since they are about half way between Atlantic City and my home in New York, I stopped to visit them on the way home from my last Blackjack playing vacation.

After dinner, we got into a heated debate over their favorite subject-Blackjack! Since they can drive to Atlantic City in about an hour and a half, they play Blackjack there every week. They think that they are very knowledgeable about the game of Blackjack. Here are five of their most interesting comments of the evening. See what you think-

#1. “If you expect to win, you have to play at a twenty-five dollar minimum table. The five dollar tables attract the tourists and unskilled players that can ruin the game for you.”

#2. “You have to play on your lucky day. Tuesday is my lucky day. That’s why we always go to Atlantic City on Tuesday.”

#3. “Counting cards is ridiculous and doesn’t help you at all. You can’t count cards anyway-there are six or eight decks in that shoe!”

#4. “Ellen had a hot streak in the last few weeks. She is really winning like crazy! I wanted to give her a hundred dollars to play for me, but I didn’t want to jinx her winning streak!”

#5. “Blackjack playing systems are worthless. I have no time to waste memorizing some stupid Blackjack playing system. Besides, the game wouldn’t be so much fun anymore.”

FIVE BLACKJACK FALLACIES

All of these comments show a very good understanding and acceptance of five of the more popular Blackjack Myths and Fallacies. These myths and fallacies seem to make sense, until they are subjected to scientific and statistical analysis.

Don’t misunderstand me! I do not mean to ridicule my friends in any way. We are only human. We have a great need to believe in these myths. In fact, many people will not alter their beliefs-even when confronted with scientific and statistical proof that any of these myths are in error!

In other words, we humans play Blackjack with our emotions in control of our playing decisions, rather than our intellect. This is the reason that it’s so easy for the casino to win that 6% advantage from the player-hand after hand.

Why do so few people win money playing Blackjack? Just hold up these five comments to the light of scientific and statistical reality, and you will see how all five contribute to a losing method of play-

#1: Do you have a better chance of winning at the twenty-five dollar table?

You can play at any table you like, and win! You are playing against the dealer. What the other players at the table do, or how they play the game is of no consequence to you. This particular myth dies hard. It is hard for many people to believe that the other players do not affect their game. -Believe it! -They don’t!

#2: Should you only play Blackjack when you feel lucky?

Luck is so important that I’ve devoted an entire lesson to it! If you believe in it-fine. Just remember, how well you play the game is of prime importance. Both your skill and your playing efficiency are under your control. Make sure that you don’t use luck as an excuse for your unwillingness to carefully learn and practice the playing method described in this course.

#3: Is “counting cards” ridiculous?

First of all, we do not “count” cards. We keep track of which groups of cards are dealt from the shoe. This can give us a definite advantage by indicating whether to place a large or small bet on the next hand. This fact has been proven over and over again by computer analysis, simulation, and actual playing experience.

#4: Is there really such a thing as a winning streak? Is it possible to do something to jinx this winning streak?

If you believe in winning streaks or losing streaks, or even worse, the ability to jinx someone’s streak by asking them to bet some money for you… let me introduce you to the tooth fairy. She is such a sweet woman. If you put your tooth under this pillow, when you wake up in the morning…

If I seem too sarcastic, excuse me. It’s just that I’ve seen so many friends and relatives lose a lot of money because of their belief in one or more of these Blackjack myths!

There are no winning streaks in the game of Blackjack, just wide statistical swings. These are caused by the random deal of the cards. The only way to jinx a “winning streak” is to start playing with your hunches and emotions, rather than a proven playing method. This playing behavior is sure to start a “losing streak” in short order!

#5: Are Blackjack playing systems worthless? Do you have time to memorize a Blackjack playing system? Can you still have fun skillfully playing the game with a Blackjack playing system?

Any Blackjack playing system that is based on a proper statistical analysis of the game is worth many times the price you pay for it! At worst it will save you from losing money at this game. At best it will enable you to win money over the long run.

Everyone can find some time to learn a playing method. Time is rarely the problem. It takes a good deal of determination and commitment to learn a Blackjack playing method. This is usually the main problem. We will deal with it later in the course. The only thing that takes the fun out of playing Blackjack is losing. Playing without a sound playing method is one way to increase the probability of losing at this game.

I did speak to Ellen on the phone this week. Well, I have to admit it-she does have fun on her weekly visits to Atlantic City. She goes to the same casino every time. She plays with the same dealers and pit bosses every week. She gets comps (free tickets) for her meals in the finest casino restaurants. She also gets complimentary tickets to the casino shows and even a free room in the hotel.

Some weeks she wins. Some weeks she loses. By the end of the year, she has usually made a very large contribution to this casino! Will she ever admit this? Of course not! She probably isn’t even aware of how much she has lost.

I visit Atlantic City less often than Ellen. I sure have plenty of fun during my visits. I eat in the best restaurants. I see the finest shows and entertainment. I don’t go to the same casino on every visit. I don’t get any comps. -I don’t need them!

Betting on Horse Racing-Sensible Money Management (Part 1)

I recently re-mortgaged our house, sold all my shares, emptied the savings account, drained the kids’ Trust Fund…. and put it all on the favourite in the 2:30 at Newmarket.

Of course I didn’t! That would have been complete madness, and dicing with financial suicide. Putting absolutely everything you have on one horse is an example of bad money management – albeit an extreme example, but it got your attention didn’t it?

Yet all too often the average punter is guilty of bad money management. On a much lesser scale admittedly, but is it any wonder that the average punter loses money betting on horse racing? I am often asked by my members “how much” they should put on each bet, “do I have a staking system?”, or “how soon can I give up my job and just bet on the horses?”.

It seems plenty of people like to pay lip service to managing their betting bank-roll, but it never ceases to amaze me how so many people are still acting so recklessly with their money when it comes to betting. It strikes me that the perennial losing punter is a little like the over-weight bloke, who sets out on January 1st with every good intention of losing his beer gut. He has a few salads, maybe even pays a visit to the gym. But more often than not come February he is back to his comfortable eating habits, and the weight continues to pile on.

It’s often the same with the average punter – he has developed bad habits that have, over time, contributed to a steady flow of money out of his bank account and into the coffers of his local bookmakers. To become a winning punter he must change his ways.

Let’s examine some of the bad betting habits that contribute to an unhealthy bank balance:

1. Poor value bets

Let’s imagine you go into Tescos and pick up a tin of baked beans from the shelf. At the check-out the spotty 17-year-old scans the tin, and says “four hundred and seventy-eight pounds sixteen pence please, sir. You hand him your debit card, key in your PIN number and stroll out of the store. Ridiculous? Of course it is – you wouldn’t pay whatever price the store decided to charge. So why do so many punters take whatever price is on offer about a horse they fancy?

The answer is simple – they have no idea what a good price about the horse should be. We are all familiar with a tin of beans, we have an idea of how much it is worth, and we can make a decision what we will and will not pay. But when it comes to backing horses, probably the only limit most punters will place upon themselves is never to back odds-on.

This self-imposed rule can in itself be a fallacy – if you offered me 4/5 odds-on about a horse with a 4/9 odds-on chance of winning, I would bite your arm off!

The odds about any given horse are a reflection of the weight of money behind it, and not necessarily a reflection of the true odds of the horse winning. Let me give you an example: top trainer Sir Michael Stoute is running a valuable filly for the first time in a maiden race at York. Champion jockey Kieron Fallon is in the saddle. The Racing Post has 7 experts tipping this horse to win. There are 11 other runners in the race. This horse’s price is 11/10 – is this a good bet? Do you really think that a filly running in public for the first time with no form to point to has a genuine chance of just under 50% to win the race?

This is a good example of when a horse’s price is lower than it’s true chance of winning. NOT good value.

The only way to make a profit from betting on horse racing in the long run, is to consistently back horses at prices too high compared to their actual chance of winning. This is known as getting ‘value’ into your bets. You are paying less for something than its true worth. It’s stuff you would learn on day one of your economics GCSE. Equally, you will profit long term if you consistently lay horses to lose at prices too short compared to their actual chance of winning.

The lesson to be learned is only ever bet when you have value on your side. Otherwise, just let the horse run. I will continue my examination of the other money-sapping betting habits in future articles, but that’s all for today.

Understanding The Difference Between D’ Alembert And The Martingale Strategies

 If you have read about betting systems before, you will quickly recognize the similarities between the D’ Alembert and the Martingale strategies.

These roulette systems are designed to help players boost their winnings and give them a systematic plan to win back their losses by using only Even-Money bets.

There is, however, one very important distinction between these two, which is perhaps one reason why some casino players prefer using the D’ Alembert system.

The main drawback of the Martingale method is that you would need to play at roulette tables with no betting limits and have unlimited funds. This is because the strategy requires players to double the bet size following a losing bet.

The effect of doubling up every time you lose is that the stake size required to win back the money from a losing bet will grow exponentially with every losing bet.

This is where the D’ Alembert system is much more attractive.

In this betting system, whenever you lose a bet, you only need to increase your next bet by one unit, not twice a much. Plus every time there’ s a win, you will lower the next bet amount by one unit to lower the amount of money needed to recover should you lose the upcoming bet.

Let’ s use another example to compare these two betting systems. Let’ s assume we use $5 as our base bet (Martingale) or middle number of our sequence (D’ Alembert) with a total bankroll of $100.

Now, let’ s imagine that we lose four bets in a row. If we were using the Martingale strategy, we would have spent ¾ of our total bankroll by now ($75) and we would not be able to place the next wager because we have reached our bankroll limit of $100.

Using the D’ Alembert system, we would have spent only $26 of a total of $100 bankroll and we could afford to lose up to 8 bets in a row before hitting our bankroll limit.

This is what makes this system so attractive, but it comes at a cost.

The Problem with the D’ Alembert System

Despite what we have mentioned before, you must bear in mind that the D’ Alembert strategy is not perfect either. It’ s very important to mention that this strategy is based on a gambler’ s fallacy.

The problem with this strategy is that it assumes that players are more likely to win after losing a bet and they’ re more likely to lose after winning.

The problem with this is obvious; each spin has exactly the same odds of being red or black despite the result of the previous spin(s).

Regardless of this shortcoming, many players claim this method provides them with a systematic gambling system that allows them to achieve good results.

In conclusion, the D’ Alembert method represents an excellent opportunity to limit the risk of going bankrupt while allowing casino players to secure good profits.

Martingale – A Roulette Strategy (With Optimization)

I like to think of this as a light hearted article, not to be taken too seriously, the casino will, on average beat you, but everyone likes a challenge, and this may be a strategy that suits you.

Roulette is designed so the casino “house” will win, Always (but on average). Some people will win when playing roulette, but on average, the people loose, the casino wins. Especially when it comes to computer roulette, which I personally avoid like the plague. There are a few ways to actually win at roulette, and I mean win..! not some strategy like the one I’m about to explain which will have potential short term gain, but real proven methods. I might discuss them in the future!

Back to this article. As you may or not know, when playing roulette, you bet on the outcome of the ball rolling on segments of a disc, you can bet even or odd, black or red, high or low, and many other bets. If you bet on the ones i mentioned, you will double you money, however, if you loose, you loose that money you bet! Sound fair? Well it would be, except for the fact that 0 exists. And sometimes even 00 exists, 0 and 00 are neither red nor black, nor odd nor even nor high nor low. So those segments on the disc are rather undesirable! Well now that that brief intro into roulette is over, here is the martingale method, followed by optimization for the martingale method.

Here is a simple example to start off with.

You enter a casino with 100 dollars. Choose one of the 6 bets i have mentioned (red/black/high/low etc.) Lets say you chose red. Bet 1 dollar on red.

If you win, change color (to black) and start again, if you loose, double your bet on the same color.

How it might play out:
1$ on red. You win. Bet 1$ on black. You loose. Bet 2$ on black. You loose. Bet 4$ on black you win.

In case you don’t see the reasoning behind this method, I’ll explain. Every time you win, you essentially get back one dollar. That’s it. If you have a loose, loose, loose, win (doubling up each bet in the process) after those 4 bets, in total, you win 1 dollar.

Still lost?

Say you have 7$ in your pocket, take it out and bet 1$ on red. You loose, bet 2$ on red, loose again(you have bet 3 $ in total now) double your bet as usual, bet 4$on red(7$ bet in total now) you win. You get back 8$, so in total you won just 1$. so if you have a huge losing streak, and one win at the end, in all you just won 1$. Now bear in mind you can change your 1$ bet to a 10cent bet, or whatever the minimum bet is. Also, you don’t have to bet on colours, you can use any of: red / black / high / low /odd even.

But there are two ways in which this system will help you loose all your money.

1) You don’t have infinite money. No one does. And eventually (and inevitably if you play for long enough) you will have a huge losing streak, and you’ll have to bet a hell of a lot of money to win back your initial 1$bet(1$is the example I’m sticking with here) Think about it. Its common enough to have 6 or 7 or 8 looses in a row, that means to win your 1$ you’ll have to bet 128$, loose again, your gonna have to bet 256$.. 512$.. 1,024$… 2,048$…!!!! It builds up faster and more frequently than you might imagine

2The maximum bet. This will cause havoc with the system.

You can be lucky like me and have limited luck, and stop when your ahead which i managed to do, but I know that’s one of the hardest things to do.

Optimization techniques (Gambler’s fallacy)

Well technically it is not optimization. It has no real effect, but it really feels like it does or should. Say you get 200 blacks in a row. You think okay, the chances of me getting a red are really high now..! Actually this is false, and it is given the name “Gambler’s fallacy”. The human mind will think the expectancy of a red is high but the probability does not change. You have the same chance of getting a red as a black. It never changes, Ever.

But if you believe in this false effect you could play the martingale strategy more “wisely”, as in hang around a roulette table, and keep track of the results. If you notice there is a streak of the same color in a row, then bet on the alternate color.

In summary, roulette is fun but not when you loose, which will happen at some stage, so bear that in mind. And don’t forget, gambling is a sin! Thanks for reading folks!