Horse Racing: Handicapping, Profitcapping And Old Things Seen In New Ways

Handicapping, profitcapping and old things seen in new ways is the only thing new in racing. You’re looking for the answers that solves all of it or solves everything in handicapping? Are you able to recognize it when you see it? Do you really want to make money in racing or do you wish to just talk it or dream about it? There’s nothing silly about this. In racing there’s nothing new except: only old things seen in new ways. One of the main matters in racing is: how accurate can all the facets, elements and factors in be measured.

Without accuracy and precision predicting the order of finish of races becomes more difficult and the player is ever more unskilled to make money. Almost every book and website on racing states:

(1) that we’ve found the ultimate system and all you have to do is buy it, use it and make a million dollars.

(2) our system has won several hundred or several thousands of dollars over the weekend so it’s the best.

(3) our system caught two long-shots and made a few extra dollars and it’ll make money for you forever.

(4) our system catches the win position horse 95% of the time compared to the tote board that catches the win position horse 33% of the time.

Also: (5) we’ve found the one angle that does it all. These and other false statements are promoted and given to the gullible public who buys these fallacies. None of this is real because there are no such things. Almost every system sold tries to make the player believe that it’s all about handicapping. Is handicapping all there is to racing? No. Getting the horse you’ve betted on is important but what’s more important is the odds on the horse(s) that tells what the horse(s) will pay.

Handicapping tells you how well you can predict a race’s outcome. But it doesn’t tell you how much money can be made long-term. Do you know what it takes to make money in racing? Let me tell you:

(a) first it takes knowing that racing’s made of two main parts: profitcapping and handicapping.

(b) the highest form of handicapping is: advanced statistical handicapping. Why? Because racing’s a statistical game.

(c) the highest form of the money side of the game is: advanced profitcapping which is statistically oriented also.

(d) it takes learning both very well.

Also: (e) it takes testing everything in order to see how money is made and then to in fact make money. Do you want to be given a magic method that’s 100% certain to make you a millionaire and without you having to do anything? It doesn’t exist. There’s no easy money in racing. This is partially about handicapping, profitcapping and old things seen in new ways.

How To Spot A Horse Racing Tipster Scam

I received an email recently from a new member to my betting advice service. She told me how she had fallen prey to one of the longest-running tipster scams around. Unfortunately this type of con is all too commonplace, and in this case made a victim of a lady with little experience of betting. What is concerning, is that for the scammers to continue using these methods means there must be a never-ending supply of unwary people forming a queue to be exploited.

I write this piece in the hope I can make at least a few more people aware of what to look out for.

The story starts with the typical piece of junk mail which regularly falls on our door mats. It contains amazing promises of big incomes to be had from following this guy’s betting advice. As ‘proof’ of this guy’s talents there is a page of outstanding results, of numerous horses winning at big prices.

Now granted, I myself guarantee a significant income to people joining my betting service. However, what I do offer any prospective member is the chance to try my service first hand, with a free trial. This tipster was looking for the first month’s membership fee up front, sent to an anonymous PO Box.

So, my first piece of advice would be “never send a tipster any money, unless you are satisfied of his credentials.” Ask for a trial of his service before you agree to part with any money. If he says ‘no’ then you have lost nothing.

More often than not, you will find no way of contacting the tipster to ask him this question — no telephone number, no email address, only the anonymous PO Box address. This desire to remain incommunicado should also speak volumes to you!

Going back to the story of our friend the tipster and his glossy piece of advertising copy — after sending off a sizeable cheque, the lady in question received a ‘hotline’ telephone number which she was advised to call every day for the tips. I know what you may be thinking, but in this case it wasn’t a premium rate number that costs £5 each day to call. This is a trick often used, and everyone should be very wary of telephone numbers pre-fixed ‘090’ especially if they have already paid a membership fee.

After following the tips for a number of days, the results were mediocre to say the least, and certainly nowhere near the high standard illustrated by the glossy marketing literature.

The next piece of advice is cliched, but remains true — “if it seems too good to be true, then it probably is!”

After about a week, this lady received a further letter, telling her that if she wanted to hear about a ‘sure-fire winner’ in the Melbourne Cup in Australia, then she should call another number. When she called she spoke to a gentleman who explained that in order to get details of the horse, she must agree to place some money on it, on behalf of the tipster. His excuse was that because he has been so successful, he has been banned from all the bookmakers, and finds it impossible to place bets personally.

The lady was asked to place £100 for this tipster, and whatever she could afford herself. The horse in question, if we were to believe the hype from this tipster, “absolutely couldn’t lose”.

She placed her money with her local bookmaker, and you’ve already guessed what happened. In fact, she lost £250 in total.

Two things to point out here — first of all, the tipster shoulders absolutely no risk in this transaction. If the horse loses, then it is only you that loses money. If it wins, then you are pressurized into sending the scammer his slice of the winnings. Secondly, let me assure you, there is no such thing as a ‘sure thing’ in any race. Even more so in a big ‘feature’ race such as the Melbourne Cup — its the biggest race in the Australian horse racing calendar, and each and every one of the runners will have been put into the race with a chance of winning.

This type of scam has even less credibility nowadays. With the advent of the betting exchanges, the disadvantage of having your accounts closed by various bookmakers is now totally irrelevant. Firms such as Betfair have no axe to grind if you are a winning punter, and they will never close your account.

Whenever you receive a set of ‘incredible’ results from a tipster, first ask if these results include ALL the selections given. In other words, is the tipster trying to hide any losers which would detract from his results? The lesson above also applies here: how easy is the tipster to contact, and how quickly and positively does he reply?

If the results are supposed to be complete, then we can analyse them a little further: make a note of the total number of bets. This is the total invested. Let’s say by way of an example that there are 50 bets — you would have invested 50 points.

Let’s say that when you add up all the claimed winners, the returns amount to 103 points. So, you would have invested 50 points in 50 bets, which returned 103 points for a profit of 53 points. Very impressive.

But now let’s get real! 53 points profit on an investment of 50 points equates to a return on investment of 206% This is calculated by dividing the 103 points returned, by the original 50 points invested.

Ask any professional punter, and they will tell you that a good return is 120% — very good is 130% — and anything over 140% is either unsustainable, or an outright fabrication. Personally, I am extremely happy when I achieve over 130% ROI for any given month, and more often than not I will only achieve around 120% – 125%

To summarize,

1. Don’t send a tipster any money until he has proved himself to you over a period of time, or he has been personally recommended by someone you trust.

2. Be wary of any tipster who hides behind an anonymous PO Box number, and is very difficult to contact. Does he answer your questions quickly and directly.

3. Be cautious of any service that involves calling a premium rate number for your information. You should be aware that you are likely to spend over £100 each month on telephone calls BEFORE you have even started to make any profit.

4. Never be fooled by anyone who claims they have a ‘sure-fire’ winner that cannot lose. Every horse, in every race has a chance of winning, and so no horse is ever 100% certain to win.

5. Never allow yourself to be seduced into placing on behalf of a tipster. His excuse that he cannot place bets personally is a total fallacy with the advent of betting exchanges, and only means he is hoping you will take all the risk in placing his bets.

6. Don’t be afraid to question a tipsters results — never take them at face value.

7. Is the tipsters claimed Return On Investment realistic — anything over 150% should be treated with suspicion, and is most likely to be an exaggeration.

8. If it seems too good to be true, then it probably is.

Betting on Horse Racing-Sensible Money Management (Part 1)

I recently re-mortgaged our house, sold all my shares, emptied the savings account, drained the kids’ Trust Fund…. and put it all on the favourite in the 2:30 at Newmarket.

Of course I didn’t! That would have been complete madness, and dicing with financial suicide. Putting absolutely everything you have on one horse is an example of bad money management – albeit an extreme example, but it got your attention didn’t it?

Yet all too often the average punter is guilty of bad money management. On a much lesser scale admittedly, but is it any wonder that the average punter loses money betting on horse racing? I am often asked by my members “how much” they should put on each bet, “do I have a staking system?”, or “how soon can I give up my job and just bet on the horses?”.

It seems plenty of people like to pay lip service to managing their betting bank-roll, but it never ceases to amaze me how so many people are still acting so recklessly with their money when it comes to betting. It strikes me that the perennial losing punter is a little like the over-weight bloke, who sets out on January 1st with every good intention of losing his beer gut. He has a few salads, maybe even pays a visit to the gym. But more often than not come February he is back to his comfortable eating habits, and the weight continues to pile on.

It’s often the same with the average punter – he has developed bad habits that have, over time, contributed to a steady flow of money out of his bank account and into the coffers of his local bookmakers. To become a winning punter he must change his ways.

Let’s examine some of the bad betting habits that contribute to an unhealthy bank balance:

1. Poor value bets

Let’s imagine you go into Tescos and pick up a tin of baked beans from the shelf. At the check-out the spotty 17-year-old scans the tin, and says “four hundred and seventy-eight pounds sixteen pence please, sir. You hand him your debit card, key in your PIN number and stroll out of the store. Ridiculous? Of course it is – you wouldn’t pay whatever price the store decided to charge. So why do so many punters take whatever price is on offer about a horse they fancy?

The answer is simple – they have no idea what a good price about the horse should be. We are all familiar with a tin of beans, we have an idea of how much it is worth, and we can make a decision what we will and will not pay. But when it comes to backing horses, probably the only limit most punters will place upon themselves is never to back odds-on.

This self-imposed rule can in itself be a fallacy – if you offered me 4/5 odds-on about a horse with a 4/9 odds-on chance of winning, I would bite your arm off!

The odds about any given horse are a reflection of the weight of money behind it, and not necessarily a reflection of the true odds of the horse winning. Let me give you an example: top trainer Sir Michael Stoute is running a valuable filly for the first time in a maiden race at York. Champion jockey Kieron Fallon is in the saddle. The Racing Post has 7 experts tipping this horse to win. There are 11 other runners in the race. This horse’s price is 11/10 – is this a good bet? Do you really think that a filly running in public for the first time with no form to point to has a genuine chance of just under 50% to win the race?

This is a good example of when a horse’s price is lower than it’s true chance of winning. NOT good value.

The only way to make a profit from betting on horse racing in the long run, is to consistently back horses at prices too high compared to their actual chance of winning. This is known as getting ‘value’ into your bets. You are paying less for something than its true worth. It’s stuff you would learn on day one of your economics GCSE. Equally, you will profit long term if you consistently lay horses to lose at prices too short compared to their actual chance of winning.

The lesson to be learned is only ever bet when you have value on your side. Otherwise, just let the horse run. I will continue my examination of the other money-sapping betting habits in future articles, but that’s all for today.